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More recently, Turkey has been in negotiations with Russia on a deal to reopen the Black Sea for grain exports - vital for both Ukraine’s economy and global security. In the early days of the war, Turkey hosted ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, and Erdogan has been in regular contact with both Putin and Zelenskyy. Given these ties to NATO and Russia, Erdogan has sought to play a mediator role. Turkey has also purchased air defense missile systems from Russia, angering the U.S. The ties between the two were reportedly cemented in 2016, when Putin voiced immediate support for Erdogan following a coup attempt, while most Western governments demurred.īeyond the personal relationship, Turkey is also a major consumer and transit country for Russian energy exports, and Russian visitors made up a large chunk of Turkey’s $30 billion-a-year (pre-pandemic) tourism industry.
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More than any one issue, what has brought Erdogan and Putin together is a shared world view: a desire to restore their nations to historical glory, a frustration with what they see as hypocritical Western lectures about human rights and democracy and a penchant for conspiracy theories. But after Erdogan apologized for the incident, relations between the two improved, and they even began some limited cooperation in Syria. Turkey and Russia backed opposite sides in the Syrian civil war, and relations between the two countries reached their nadir after the Turkish shootdown of a Russian fighter jet near the Syria-Turkey border in 2015. In recent years, Erdogan and Putin have built the unlikeliest of friendships. Turkey has not joined its NATO allies in placing sanctions on Russia, and Erdogan has been far more cautious in his criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin than other members of the alliance. (Selcuk Bayraktar, the Elon Musk-esque inventor and CEO behind the drone is Erdogan’s son-in-law, and his signature product has become a useful way for Turkey to exert influence in conflicts from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ethiopia.)īut this support has its limits. Turkey has also sold the Ukrainians a significant amount of weaponry, including the low-cost Bayraktar drones that have become one of the iconic weapons of this war. Turkey, which controls international access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits, also complied with Ukraine’s request to block Russian warships from crossing those bodies of water, earning the gratitude of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. So it made sense when war broke out to see Turkey standing with its NATO allies in condemning Russia’s invasion.
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A full Russian takeover of Ukraine, which appeared likely at the outset of the war, would be met with alarm in Ankara. Turkey has historically sought good relations with other Black Sea nations as a counterweight against Russia. The Ukraine balancing actĪs the two largest military powers on the Black Sea, Russia and Turkey have long been rivals for regional influence. “One of Erdogan’s greatest assets is that he’s able to make what is good for Turkey into what is good for Erdogan,” Cagaptay told Grid. It wouldn’t be the first time, noted Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The war in Ukraine may turn out to be an unprecedented opportunity for Erdogan to turn a geopolitical crisis into personal opportunity. To add a third crisis to the mix, Turkey broke off talks with historic rival Greece this week over a range of issues involving territorial claims and energy exploration rights in the Aegean Sea.Įxperts who spoke with Grid said all these situations are connected and should be seen as part of a larger effort by Turkey to take advantage of the moment. and other Western nations need Turkey and might be less inclined to oppose such an incursion. Erdogan is acting at a moment when the U.S. allies in the fight against the Islamic State - and the timing is no coincidence. Those forces happen to be the most important U.S. Meanwhile, Erdogan is vowing to launch a new military incursion into Syria in the coming weeks, an attack that would target Kurdish forces there.